% Short Summary: % Lists all-time NFL passers through 1994 by the NFL passing efficiency rating. % Associated passing statistics from which this rating is computed are included. % % % More Details: % The NFL describes how to compute its rating in its 1977 document % "National Football League Passer Rating System" (410 Park Avenue, New York, % NY 10022-4444, (212) 758-1500) through the use of tables. No formula is % explicitly stated for rating. But, examining the tables in the "National % Football League Passer Rating System" one can infer that NFL passer rating is % % [5(Completion Percentage-30)/6] + [10(Touchdown Percentage)/3] + % [25(19-2(Interception Percentage))/12] + [25(Yards/Attempts-3)/6] % % where it is understood that the values within each set of square brackets are % truncated to be no smaller than zero and no larger than 475/12. This implies a % minimal rating of 0 and a maximal rating of 475/3 or about 158.3. If % % 30% < Completion Percentage < 77.5% % 0% < Touchdown Percentage < 11.875% % 0% < Interception Percentage < 9.5% % 3 < Yards per Attempt < 12.5, % % which is true of most passers having a reasonable number of passing attempts, % then the rating formula simplifies to % % [25 + 10(Completion Percentage) + 40(Touchdown Percentage) % - 50(Interception Percentage) + 50(Yards/Attempt)]/12 % % (see Johnson (1993, 1994). Note that the weights on interception percentage and % yards per attempt are greatest in magnitude, closely followed by touchdown % percentage. The weight on completion percentage is a distant fourth in % magnitude. % % The dataset lists statistics for 26 players. The first 25 are the top 25 % all-time career best rating leaders recognized by the NFL. The 26th player, % Otto Graham, has statistics which include his performance in the All-America % Football Conference (1946-1949) which is not recognized by the NFL. The % statistics given are current through the 1994 regular season. Only passers with % a minimum of 1,500 career passing attempts are included. % % Note: By using unofficial 1995 season statistics which appeared in the % Thursday, December 28 and the Wednesday, December 27 issues of the newspaper % _USA Today_ one can update the passers below through the 1995 regular season. % (There could be, however, a new entry to the top 25 at the end of the 1995 % season because of the 1,500 minimum passing attempt cutoff.) % % While the dataset provided gives all-time best career ratings of players, % rankings of passers are often cited for a current NFL season in newspapers % (e.g. _USA Today_). % % Different methods of ranking passers by a single numeric rating is also done % by the NCAA (see Johnson (1994)) and the Canadian Football League (just the % NFL method + 100/6? - this fits the data on p. 242 of Meserole (1995)). % % As an interesting note on the use of the rating formula by NFL teams the % following appeared in the _Star-Tribune_ (Minneapolis newspaper) December % 30, 1993 just before the last week of the 1993-1994 regular season: % % "New York Jets coach Bruce Coslet dismissed suggestions he might not % play Boomer Esiason on Sunday night at Houston if the game is meaningless. % Terms of the trade last winter that brought the quarterback from Cincinnati % called for the Bengals to receive a 1994 second-round draft pick if Esiason's % passing rating is 89 or higher. Right now, his rating is 87.1." % % Esiason played the game against Houston, Houston eliminating the Jets from % post-season play, and finished the season with a 84.5 rating (_USA Today_, % January 5, 1994, 4C). % % % Classroom Use of this Data: % Using the NFL data from Meserole (1995), for which the above inequalities % hold, one can uncover (at least approximately) the simplified rating formula % using multiple regression. Students can be told that NFL rating is "based on % performance standards established for completion percentage, average gain, % touchdown percentage and interception percentage" (Meserole (1995)), but the % actual formula for rating is not widely publicized. Once the rating formula is % uncovered, one can see the relative weights that the NFL assigns to these four % performance standards (see Barra and Neyer (1995) for an alternative). Also, by % citing unusual passers who don't satisfy the above inequalities an instructor % can remind students of the dangers of extrapolation when building regression % models. Here are a few such unusual passers: % % Name Attempts Completions Yards Touchdowns Interceptions Rating % % Rypien 3 3 15 0 0 87.5 % Marshall 1 1 81 1 0 158.3 % Muster 1 0 0 0 1 0.0 % % The data for Arthur Marshall, a wide-receiver for Denver, and for Brad Muster, % a full-back for Chicago are from the 1992 season. The data for quarterback Mark % Rypien is for his performance at one point during the 1995 season (see _USA % Today_, Thursday September 28, 1995, 9C). % % One might also try tracking down the passing (not receiving!) records of Jerry % Rice for the 1995 season as he apparently threw for a touchdown in the regular % season finale. % % % Submitted by (and contact for questions): % Roger W. Johnson % Math/CS Department % Carleton College % Northfield, MN 55057-4001 % rjohnson@carleton.edu % % % Distribution of the Dataset: % The data from Meserole (1995) listed below may be freely distributed and % used for nonprofit educational purposes such as teaching (including multiple % copies for classroom use), scholarship, and research under fair use according % to the copyright law encoded at 17 U.S.C. Section 107 et seq. (1982). % % % Variables (from left to right) in Dataset: % Passing Attempts % Passing Completions % Passing Yards % Touchdowns by Passing % Interceptions % NFL Rating (usually to the nearest tenth, sometimes to the nearest % hundredth to eliminate ties that would result when only given to the % nearest tenth) % Name of NFL Player % % % References: % % Barra, A. and Neyer, R. (1995), "When rating quarterbacks, yards per throw % matters", _The Wall Street Journal_, Friday, November 24, B5. % % Johnson, R. (1994), "Rating quarterbacks: An amplification", _The College % Mathematics Journal_, vol. 25, no. 4, p. 340. % % Johnson, R. (1993), "How does the NFL rate the passing ability of % quarterbacks?", _The College Mathematics Journal_, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 451-453. % % Meserole, M., editor, (1995), "The 1996 Information Please Sports Almanac", % p. 265. % % % % % % Information about the dataset % CLASSTYPE: numeric % CLASSINDEX: 6 % @relation nflpass @attribute Passing_Attempts INTEGER @attribute Passing_Completions INTEGER @attribute Passing_Yards INTEGER @attribute Touchdowns_by_Passing INTEGER @attribute Interceptions INTEGER @attribute NFL_Rating REAL @attribute Name_of_NFL_Player {Bart_Starr,Bernie_Kosar,Boomer_Esiason,Brett_Favre,Dan_Fouts,Dan_Marino,Danny_White,Dave_Krieg,Fran_Tarkenton,Jeff_Hostetler,Jim_Everett,Jim_Kelly,Joe_Montana,Ken_Anderson,Ken_OBrien,Len_Dawson,Mark_Rypien,Neil_Lomax,Otto_Graham,Randall_Cunningham,Roger_Staubach,Sonny_Jurgensen,Steve_Young,Tony_Eason,Troy_Aikman,Warren_Moon} @data 2429,1546,19869,140,68,96.8,Steve_Young 5391,3409,40551,273,139,92.3,Joe_Montana 6049,3604,45173,328,185,88.2,Dan_Marino 3942,2397,29527,201,143,85.8,Jim_Kelly 2958,1685,22700,153,109,83.4,Roger_Staubach 4390,2562,32114,231,166,83.0,Dave_Krieg 3153,1817,22771,136,90,82.7,Neil_Lomax 4262,2433,32224,255,189,82.63,Sonny_Jurgensen 3741,2136,28711,239,183,82.56,Len_Dawson 1580,983,10412,70,53,82.2,Brett_Favre 4475,2654,32838,197,160,81.9,Ken_Anderson 3225,1896,22394,120,82,81.82,Bernie_Kosar 1505,864,10985,54,38,81.78,Jeff_Hostetler 2950,1761,21959,155,132,81.7,Danny_White 4291,2440,31874,207,153,81.64,Boomer_Esiason 2281,1424,16303,82,78,81.62,Troy_Aikman 3149,1808,24718,152,138,80.5,Bart_Starr 3602,2110,25094,128,98,80.44,Ken_OBrien 6467,3686,47003,342,266,80.35,Fran_Tarkenton 5147,3003,37949,214,185,80.3,Warren_Moon 5604,3297,43040,254,242,80.2,Dan_Fouts 1564,911,11142,61,51,79.7,Tony_Eason 3241,1805,22272,147,100,79.4,Randall_Cunningham 2335,1303,16622,105,78,79.3,Mark_Rypien 3817,2193,27613,164,141,79.0,Jim_Everett 2626,1464,23584,174,135,86.6,Otto_Graham